What a room of industry leaders is seeing right now, and why the market is pulling in different directions at once.
There was a point not that long ago where you could look at the automotive market, or financial services more broadly, and identify a dominant force shaping it; a clear direction of travel but that feels much harder to do now, not because nothing is happening, but because too much is happening at once.
There’s a tendency, particularly in fast-moving industries, to look for a single narrative that explains what’s changing; a trend to follow, a new shift to align with but the reality right now is far less linear.
Last week, we hosted another edition of The Shift Dinner, bringing together senior leaders from automotive, finance and digital marketing. As ever, the value did not come from a single viewpoint, but from the tension between them; different parts of the market, different commercial realities and a growing sense that the foundations many have relied on are beginning to move. What stood out wasn’t a shared conclusion, but a shared recognition that across different sectors, facing different pressures, there was a common theme emerging.
Markets aren’t moving in one direction anymore, they’re fragmenting, stretching, and in some cases, pulling against themselves, and that changes how businesses need to think. What followed was not a summary of automotive trends, but a set of signals that, when taken together, point to a more complex and less predictable landscape than the industry has been used to.
When Finance Tightens, Everything Else Has to Work Harder
One of the clearest signals, not just in automotive but across financial services more broadly, is how pressure is building within established models.
Regulation, cost, scrutiny, and margin compression are all increasing, whether you’re looking at motor finance, lending, or subscription-based services, the underlying dynamic is similar. It is a model that still works, but not as easily as it once did.
The conversation around this opened with the FCA readdress and the ongoing review into motor finance commission as well as the impact it is already having, and is expected to continue having, on the borrowing landscape. There was a shared concern around the damage it has done, not only in terms of disruption, but in how it reshapes confidence across the market.
The expectation across the table was that, over time, this pressure will be absorbed by the consumer, most likely through rate increases or reduced flexibility in how finance is structured. That has implications beyond finance teams, affecting how vehicles are positioned, how value is communicated, and how deals are ultimately made to work.
Alongside that, MD At Luscombe’s Leeds, Sam Luscombe raised a point that felt both familiar and timely, which was a shift back towards focusing on the value in the metal rather than relying purely on finance to carry the proposition. It is, in many respects, a return to how things used to be, but under very different market conditions. When finance becomes harder to lean on, the product itself has to do more of the work, and that requires a different level of clarity in how it is presented to the customer.
What happens in these moments is predictable but the pressure doesn’t disappear, it moves. It shifts between business and consumer, between margin and volume, between acquisition and retention.
The organisations that adapt quickest are rarely the ones trying to resist that movement. They are the ones identifying where the value is relocating, and repositioning around it.
Stock Is Ageing, and That Changes the Dynamics
One of the more operational, yet telling, observations came from attendees from G3, Motorvise and KT Green, who spoke about the way stock is beginning to age within the network. Vehicles that would previously have been cycled away from the retailer (Eg Part-Ex) are now being held for longer, with five to eight-year-old cars becoming far more common on forecourts than they were even a few years ago.
What this creates is not just a stock issue, but a positioning challenge. Older vehicles require a stronger narrative, clearer justification, and a more considered approach to how they are marketed and sold and the margin for passive demand reduces, and the reliance on actively creating value increases.
EV Adoption Is Being Won Through Practical Framing
The discussion around electric vehicles often centres on infrastructure, policy or long-term transition, yet one of the more grounded insights came from Fraser Brown’s experience within the used EV market.
Strong performance is not being driven by abstract messaging around sustainability, but by something far more immediate which is the ability to demonstrate the savings on fuel, and to translate those savings into what a customer can afford elsewhere, whether that is a higher-value vehicle or a different finance structure, is proving to be far more compelling.
This reframing is important because it shifts the conversation from future intent to present value. It removes friction in decision-making by anchoring the proposition in something tangible and measurable.
The Scale of the Chinese Shift Is Underestimated
A significant portion of the evening was spent discussing the growing presence of Chinese automotive brands, with Philip Nothard and Owen Edwards offering detailed perspectives on what is already happening.
What stood out was not just the scale, but the inevitability of it as these brands are operating with production capacity that allows them to move quickly and at volume, supported by battery technology that is both advanced and steadily reducing in cost. The expectation that sub-£10,000 vehicles will enter the market is not speculative, it is a realistic outcome, and one that has the potential to reshape entry points entirely.
Interestingly, much of the current wave is centred around plug-in hybrids rather than fully electric vehicles, although there was a clear view that this will shift over time as infrastructure and consumer readiness continue to develop.
Perhaps the most important distinction, however, is how these vehicles are being built. They are software-defined, rather than purely engineering-led and that difference changes how products evolve, how they are updated, and how value is delivered over time, it also places incumbent manufacturers in a position where catching up is not simply a matter of iteration, but of rethinking their approach entirely.
Ownership Is Starting to Feel More Temporary
Running alongside the discussion of new entrants was a broader reflection on how consumers are beginning to perceive the car itself as there is a growing sense that ownership is becoming less fixed, particularly when compared to previous generations.
The comparison that surfaced, and resonated, was that of the car becoming more like an iPhone – something that is used, experienced, and then replaced after a relatively short period, rather than held onto for the long term.
This raises questions around how vehicles are financed, how they are marketed, and how brands build loyalty in an environment where permanence is no longer assumed.
It also brings models such as subscription services into sharper focus as these models may not yet be dominant, but they align closely with a shift in expectation that is already underway.
The Broader Signal Beyond Automotive
While much of the conversation was rooted in automotive, the themes themselves extend far beyond it as the redistribution of cost, the need to return to core value, the slowing movement of assets, the emergence of fundamentally different competitors, and the changing relationship between consumer and product are not confined to one sector, they are all visible across financial services, technology and retail.
What this suggests is not a single industry in transition, but a wider shift in how markets operate. A shift away from linear growth models and towards something more complex, where multiple forces interact at once and require a more considered response.
Where This Leaves Us?
What became clear over the course of the evening is that there is no single lever that will define success in the current environment, instead, there is a need to understand how these different pressures connect, and how value can be created within that complexity.
For marketing, that role becomes more central, not just in generating demand, but in shaping how propositions are understood, how value is communicated, and how decisions are influenced, because when the environment becomes more difficult to navigate, transparency becomes more valuable.
Why Black Lab Continues to Host The Shift?
The purpose of The Shift has never been to summarise what is happening in the industry, but to create a space where those closest to it can speak openly about what they are seeing, challenge assumptions, and build a more complete picture together.
The conversations themselves do not simplify the landscape, but they do make it clearer, and in a market that is no longer moving in a single direction, that matters.
We will be opening invitations for the next Shift dinner shortly. If you would like to be part of the conversation, we would welcome it.
